According to the CSIS report, the conflict has degraded Russia to a second or third-tier economic power, with estimated growth of just 0.6% in 2025, high inflation, weakening consumption, and a marked labor shortage. According to Western sources and testimonies collected by international organizations, these men were lured with promises of civilian employment in Moscow or St. Petersburg—as cooks, cleaning staff, or for manual labor—and, once on Russian territory, were immediately diverted to combat zones in Ukraine. The report challenges the idea of an inevitable Russian victory, a view even held by U.S. President Donald Trump, who had indicated that Russia's size and strength would ultimately prevail. Russian combat deaths are estimated at between 275,000 and 325,000, compared to 100,000 to 140,000 on the Ukrainian side, resulting in an unfavorable loss ratio for Moscow of between 2-to-1 and 2.5-to-1. In historical perspective, Russian losses are extraordinary. The United States lost around 57,000 soldiers in the Korean War and 47,000 during the Vietnam War, figures that, even combined, fall far short of the human cost Russia is facing in Ukraine today. According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Kremlin forces have recorded around 1.2 million casualties—including killed, wounded, and missing—since the start of the offensive ordered by President Vladimir Putin in February 2022. The study notes that such a human sacrifice translated into limited territorial gains: Russia has increased its control over Ukrainian soil by only 12% since 2022, and in the last two years, its conquests have been less than 1.5% of the total territory. On several sectors of the front, daily advances are measured in meters—14 meters in Chasiv Yar, 22 in Kupiansk, and 69 in Pokrovsk—rates even lower than those recorded during the Battle of the Somme in World War I. A central aspect of the report is that Russia is not fighting solely with its own troops. In the absence of new economic and military measures, CSIS warns, the Kremlin will continue to prolong the conflict, even at the cost of millions more casualties, sustaining the war with forced conscripts, foreign contingents, and fighters sent to the front under false pretenses. Sources consulted: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS); North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE); official statements from Western leaders; international academic reports. The UK's Deputy Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, James Ford, recently stated that the Russian army faces a structural attrition that is difficult to reverse, even with forced mobilizations and the use of foreign fighters. The impact of the war is also felt in the economy. Ukraine records between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, while Russia's number is more than double that. Buenos Aires, January 2026 – Total News Agency-TNA- The human cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reached unprecedented levels for a major military power since World War II. Conversely, CSIS maintains that Ukraine maintains a significant defensive advantage, supported by a strategy of defense in depth with trenches, anti-tank obstacles, minefields, drones, and artillery, which raises the cost of every Russian advance. Comparative figures reinforce this reading. Even more pointed is the comparison made by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who stated: “In the 1980s, in Afghanistan, the Soviets lost 20,000 soldiers in 10 years. Now they lose 30,000 in a month”. Western analysts warn that the level of casualties exceeds the sustainable capacity for recruitment and replacement. This is compounded by technological lag: no Russian company is among the top 100 in the world, and the country ranks 28th out of 36 in Stanford University's global artificial intelligence ranking. Despite this scenario, the report concludes that Putin is unlikely to accept a peace agreement without substantially greater Western pressure.
