The ruble, the currency of Russia, has experienced solid growth against the dollar recently. Since the beginning of the year, it has increased its value by 11 percent against the dollar, becoming the best-performing currency in emerging markets. According to data from the Central Bank of Russia and Bloomberg, it has even traded at levels below 90 rubles per dollar, something that has not happened since September.
Denis Popov, an analyst at Promsvyazbank PJSC, attributes this strengthening of the ruble to the positive start of negotiations between Russia and the United States, as well as favorable comments from Trump. There is a positive expectation in the market regarding the Russian currency, and there is a possibility of future strengthening in the short or medium term.
High-ranking officials from the United States and Russia met in Riyadh to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine and exploring broader cooperation. This indicates an attempt by Trump to restore a damaged relationship between the two countries. However, peace negotiations in Ukraine are a crucial point.
In relation to this matter, Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach an agreement with Russia quickly, warning him about the consequences of not doing so. Despite this, analysts from Bloomberg Economics point out that the rise of the ruble may be premature if no progress is made in the peace negotiations in Ukraine.
Oleg Kuzmin, head of research at Renaissance Capital, mentions that if the geopolitical situation does not change, a fair exchange rate level with current oil prices will remain above 100 rubles per dollar.
